Climate change represents one of the greatest threats to global coffee cultivation. The increase in average temperature, prolonged droughts, intense rainfall, and the proliferation of pests and diseases have compromised production stability in several countries.
According to a study published in the journal PLOS ONE, global warming and the consequent alteration of climatic conditions could reduce areas currently suitable for Arabica coffee cultivation by up to 50% by the year 2050. However, the impacts are not limited to this species alone. Research published in the journal Global Change Biology, based on the analysis of over 50,000 plantations in Southeast Asia, indicates that Robusta coffee is also negatively affected by the continuous rise in temperatures.
The main producing countries are already facing significant consequences of this reality. In Brazil, the combination of severe droughts and extreme frosts has devastated crops. Some projections point to losses of up to 60% of areas currently allocated to coffee cultivation. In Colombia's case, excessive rainfall and high humidity create the perfect environment for the spread of pests and diseases, with particular emphasis on coffee leaf rust.
The impact also extends to the economic sphere. The reduction in global supply, agricultural adaptation costs, and increasing production volatility have driven price increases in international markets. Small-scale producers remain the most vulnerable, due to their limited capacity to invest in technologies capable of addressing such a problem.
Given these challenges, the future of coffee production will depend on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, the development of heat- and drought-resistant varieties, and the sector's ability to adapt to new global climatic conditions.
But don't worry, coffee isn't going to disappear!